Estimating the probability distribution of a travel demand forecast
نویسندگان
چکیده
We present a practical method for estimating the probability distribution of a travel demand forecast. Given a forecast of any variable of interest, such as revenue or ridership, the approach identifies independent sources of uncertainty, estimates a probability distribution of each source, estimates the sensitivity of the variable to each source, and then combines the effects. A case study is presented in which the probability distribution of a revenue forecast is developed for a new transit system.
منابع مشابه
An Alternative Approach to Centroids and Connectors Pattern: Random Intra-Zonal Travel Time
In traditional traffic assignment procedure, each traffic analysis zone is represented by one point in its geometric center which is connected to the network by several connectors. Results of studies show that different connector patterns would result up to 10% change in estimated volume and up to 20% change in total travel time. Also the different patterns of connectors can change the priority...
متن کاملEstimating the economic value of Khorram Abad Falak al-Aflak castle by regional travel cost method
Investigating the economic value of tourism areas is one of the topics of interest in studies of tourism economics. Investigating the economic value of recreational areas in terms of cost-benefit policy-making and tourism analysis is essential. The purpose of this study was to estimate the economic value of Falak al-Aflak castle of Khorram Abad by regional travel cost method. The research metho...
متن کاملMarket Potential Estimation for Tourism in Emerging Markets
The objective of this paper was to develop a useful framework for estimating demand for tourism in emerging markets. Tourism has become one of the most crucial sectors in a large number of emerging countries. Moreover, the tourism industry in such markets is forecasted to keep increasing in the next decade. Hence, understanding and accurately forecast demand in the industry is essential in orde...
متن کاملمدل سازی ترکیبی پیش بینی تقاضای گردشگری پزشکی داخلی شهر تهران
Introduction: One of the most important events in the tourism industry of each country is the demand for a product or destination and its true prediction of tourism. It should be noted that there are distances and deviations between actual values and predictions. The use of modern scientific and forecasting methods will make the results far more than an objective estimate and closer to the trut...
متن کاملA Study of Factors Influencing Demand For Travel to Iran
In this paper the factors having influence on travel demand to Iran are paper explored. The hypothesis of the research specifies the variable of “domestic upheavals and insecurity” as the most significant obstacle to expansion of the demand for travel to Iran. To test the above hypothesis, first several demand models that have been proposed to study demand for tourism in different countries, ar...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2004